Global wine and spirits market to recover slowly over the next five years
Filed under News on Monday, November 30, 2009.
The global wine and spirits market has been affected by the credit crunch and volumes for 2009 are expected to be down across many markets, but recovery will be seen in most categories and markets -according to The IWSR’s 2009-2013 Forecast Report. The report forecasts all major categories at a global level and presents in-depth analysis of 54 key countries.
The global spirits market will grow by only 0.4% CAGR between 2008 and 2013, down from 2.4% between 2003 and 2008. India will be the leading the growth, followed by the US. India’s already enormous whisky market is expected to continue to grow, while brandy is expected to overtake rum/cane by 2013 to become the second largest spirits category. There will be continued growth in white spirits and rum/cane in the US, while brandy and whisky will remain essentially flat.
Whisky and rum/cane will be the only major categories to increase their percentage share of the worldwide market between 2008 and 2013. Whisky will show a 2.7% CAGR growth over the next five years, entirely due to Indian whisky. The six largest whisky markets in the world are likely to remain stable in terms of volume between 2008 and 2013 but Spain will fall from fourth to sixth place and the UK will rise from sixth to fourth. With the exception of India, Mexico will be the only market to see growth of 1m cases plus.
Overall rum and cane have grown by 0.6% CAGR between 2003 and 2008 and growth will accelerate over the next five years to 0.8%, driven by Brazil, the US and the Philippines.
White spirits will remain at present levels between 2008 and 2013 having grown by 1.6% CAGR from 2003 to 2008. The US will be the fastest-growing white spirits market as vodka remains the most trendy category and the one seeing the most investment. This trend will not continue indefinitely as the growth in number of drinkers will inevitably slow down.
The global wine market will grow by 0.6% over the forecast period, down from 1.4% between 2003 and 2008. France is likely to slow its decline at the end of the forecast period, as it seems to have been less affected by the economic crisis, and the country has one of the highest birth rates in Europe. Spain has the lowest per capita consumption of any wine-producing country, and younger consumers are entering wine at a later age if at all. However, like France, the decline in wine consumption in Spain is likely to slow over the forecast period. The wine market in China is expected to continue to grow rapidly, and overall Asia-Pacific will continue to take market share from Europe.
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